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Tuesday, 11 July 2006

Example of Constant Value Investing

Posted on 12:27 by Unknown
Here is an example of constant value investing, as applied to Amazon.com (AMZN) yearly prices. The prices were obtained from Barchart.com, which is on my list of links.

Constant value is the basic principle behind my successful stock trading system, which I describe in my book, Stock Trading Riches, which is available on Amazon.com.

To show an example of how constant value investing self-corrects a case of bad timing, we will start with January 2000, at the peak of the internet bubble.

Here, then, are the yearly January 31 closing prices:






2000 64.56
2001 17.31
2002 14.19
2003 21.85
2004 50.40
2005 43.22
2006 44.82
Now, let us pretend that we bought $2000 worth of AMZN at the end of January, 2000 (ouch!). Then, we rebalanced back to $2000 at the end of each January by dividing 2000 by the current share price, to find out how many shares we need to own. We added new cash for purchases when necessary.

Here is the table:








price shares cash pool total value amount invested
64.56 30 63.2 2000 2000
17.31 115 0 1990.65 3408.15
14.19 140 0 1986.6 3762.9
21.85 91 1070.65 3059 3762.9
50.40 39 3691.45 5657.05 3762.9
43.22 46 3388.91 5377.03 3762.9
44.82 44 3478.55 5450.63 3762.9


At the end of January 2006, we had invested $3762.90 and had a total value (stock plus cash) of $5450.63. This is +44.85%

Buy and hold, on the other hand, would be down 30.5% (44.82/64.56)
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